This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics‎.‎ It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in ‎'‎connecting the dots‎'‎ to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence‎:‎ from observations we make‎,‎ or questions we ask‎,‎ we generate alternative hypotheses as explanations or answers‎;‎ we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and discover new evidence‎;‎ and we test the hypotheses with the discovered evidence‎.‎ To facilitate understanding of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses‎,‎ the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool‎,‎ called Disciple‎-CD‎.‎ Readers will practice with Disciple‎-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses‎;‎ develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones‎;‎ collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses‎;‎ and assess the relevance and the believability of evidence‎,‎ which combine in complex ways to determine its inferential force and the probabilities of the hypotheses‎.‎

• Author‎:‎ Gheorghe Tecuci‎.‎ David A‎.‎ Schum
• Publisher‎:‎ Cambridge University Press
• ISBN‎:‎ 9781107122604